India makes china shy, see how?

Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang will be visiting Nepal on August 14, barely nine days before Nepali Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba embarks on an official visit to India, his first after assuming the chief executive’s post for the fourth time two months ago. In between, India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj will be in Kathmandu for the BIMSTEC meet.

Certain political trends at home and China’s pro-active approach to Kathmandu indicate that silence may seem a prudent response, but not perhaps the desirable reaction at this moment for Nepal. Prime Minister Deuba has been advised by some senior diplomats that the joint agreement China and India signed in May 2015 to develop Lipulekh along the Kalapani tri-junction between China, Nepal and India as a trade post should be reviewed. Former Foreign Affairs Minister Mahendra Bahadur Pande claims China has already assured Nepal that it is ready for a review. “With Doklam dispute escalating, the Lipulekh issue must be settled now so that it does not turn into a flash point in the future,” says a senior Nepali bureaucrat. He added that Prime Minister Deuba has been advised suitably.

The Chinese vice premier is expected to encourage Nepal to decide on projects and their execution under the Belt and Road initiative. Leader of the main opposition group and former prime minister, K.P. Oli, who is perceived by India as pro-China, was recently invited to Lhasa and apparently briefed about the Chinese position on Doklam and given the message that China respected the “sovereignty” of both Nepal and Bhutan. Leaders close to Oli believe that China wants to engage Bhutan in a bilateral dialogue over the border issue, while avoiding India.

The Chinese are now forthcoming and candid on bilateral or regional issues when they share the platform with Nepali academics and other individuals. Their remarks include barbed and sarcastic references to India and its “interference” in Nepal’s internal politics. At times, they suggest that the Indian way of dealing with Nepal recalls the “British legacy”. Hu Shisheng, a director at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, a think tank with enormous clout on formulating China’s neighbourhood policy, recently presented a paper on the occasion of Nepal and China entering the 62nd year of diplomatic relations. The paper suggests that China and Nepal establish “connections” through railways, pipelines and highways. It also calls for Nepal to link China and India and has a veiled prescription that Nepal should ignore India if it does not cooperate.

Heeding the advice is not easy for Nepal, but China knows that anti-India sentiment is unprecedentedly high in Nepal. China, officially, has been full of appreciation for what Nepal has done to discourage anti-Chinese activities on its territory. In most bilateral academic fora, China takes pride in not having interfered in Nepal’s internal affairs. Hu, for instance, indicates that two treaties Nepal and China signed in the past have settled the British legacy as well as Tibet-related issues. He emphasises that in the absence of the British legacy, Nepal and China can treat each other as “equals”.

China also insists that it never supported the Maoist insurgency. It claims that except for appealing to the Maoists to join the political mainstream at times, it did not mastermind regime changes in Kathmandu, so frequent since 1990. In contrast, India is seen to have promoted the Maoist insurgency and subsequently, brought the Maoists to the political mainstream, sidelining traditional forces and causing the current chaos. China’s reference to the Maoist insurgency is significant since India has been blamed for displacing the Oli regime last year with a coalition of the Maoists led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and the Nepali Congress led by Deuba. Oli, buoyed by the clear lead the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist gained in the recent local bodies election, has started making claims that he would form the government at the Centre when Parliament elections are held by January, as mandated by the constitution. Deuba is also under pressure from powerful political groups in Nepal to tell India that it should either execute the major hydro projects it undertook several years ago or give up. These are signs India must not ignore.

India has lost goodwill in Nepal. Kathmandu knows that if the Doklam issue escalates it will affect Nepal’s life and economy adversely. However, India can’t be assured of Nepal’s support on the issue.

What says India now about dokhlam issue

India, today, said it continues to engage with China diplomatically and has been coordinating with Bhutan to find a mutually acceptable solution to the Doklam standoff. South Asian Monitor

“We continue to engage with China through diplomatic channels to find a mutually acceptable solution,” external affairs ministry spokesperson Gopal Baglay said.

 Asked about China’s claim of India reducing its troops from 400 to 40 in Doklam, he said refused to give a direct reply calling it an operational matter.

Our objective is to achieve peace and tranquillity and it will be achieved through diplomacy, Baglay said.

He also said that India has been in continuous coordination and consultation with Bhutan on the Dokalam issue.

China is going to defeat India within 2 weeks - Chinese media

Amid the ongoing standoff between Indian and Chinese soldiers in Sikkim, a new editorial of Chinese state daily Global Times on Friday targeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, warning him not to push India into a “reckless conflict” with China. The editorial titled, “Modi mustn’t pull India into reckless conflict”, warned, “Indian border troops are no rival to PLA field forces. If a war spreads, the PLA is perfectly capable of annihilating all Indian troops in the border region.” South Asian Monitor

China has exercised great restraint, demonstrating respect to peace and human life through its decision not to strike at Indian troops who have taken up positions in Doklam, the Global Times said but warned of ‘devastation’ if India continues to provoke its giant neighbour.

“India is concerned that the road China was building in Doklam might threaten the security of the Siliguri Corridor, but does that justify Indian troops’ incursion into another country in utter disregard of international treaties,” the newspaper queried.

Emphasising that the PLA did not strike in the past month when Indian troop trespassed into Chinese territory, the editorial warned of a mismatch in strength between India and China in the case of a military confrontation and urged India to recognize the ‘grave consequences,’ its actions could have.

“The Modi government’s hard-line stance is sustained by neither laws nor strength. This administration is recklessly breaking international norms and jeopardizing India’s national pride and peaceful development.”

It further said “India is publicly challenging a country that is far superior in strength. India’s recklessness has shocked Chinese. Maybe its regional hegemonism in South Asia and the Western media comments have blinded New Delhi into believing that it can treat a giant to its north in the way it bullies other South Asian countries.”

“Its move is irresponsible to regional security and is gambling against India’s destiny and its people’s well-being,” the Global Times said reiterating that India was being aggressive towards a country far superior in military capability.

“Over the past month, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been on the move. We believe that the PLA has made sufficient preparation for military confrontation,” the editorial further said and opined that it would be war with an ‘obvious result.’

“The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi should be aware of the PLA’s overwhelming firepower and logistics. Indian border troops are no rival to PLA field forces. If a war spreads, the PLA is perfectly capable of annihilating all Indian troops in the border region,” it said.

“The Modi government should stop lying to its people that “India in 2017 is different from India in 1962.” The gap in national strength between the two countries is the largest in the past 50 years. If the Modi government wants to start a war, at least it should tell its people the truth,” it added.

The Global Times commentary on the ongoing stand-off between China and India comes amidst statements issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry this week demanding that India immediately and unconditionally pull back the trespassing border troops.

“If the Indian side truly cherish peace, what it should do is to immediately pull back the trespassing border troops to the Indian side of the boundary,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said, describing the action of India as one of “irresponsibility and recklessness.”

He maintained that until Wednesday, there had been 48 Indian soldiers and one bulldozer in the Doklam area, calling this as an illegal intrusion into Chinese territory.